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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

NIFTY TRADE IDEA

There is one simple remedy for this: Sell only when Nifty trades below 5 day or 3 day averages/ emas(Depends on your risk appetite) and preferably after a negative divergence is spotted & reverses.

In my tech Table, you will find the "high ema" of week, Day & Hour. When we reach "OverBought" area(Identify with stochastics above 90 & reversing or macd in +ve area at high level & turning down), Nifty initially closes below the hour high ema and that is a starting place for aggressive sell. A point to remember here is, not to short when just out of a good consolidation range but allow it to run out of steam..Elliott wave labelling(Simply a marking post or mapping strategy) helps here of more upsides, etc.

This will minimise your errors. It happens when we try to preempt the market, expecting a top. If you can study Elliott wave analysis you can sell quite close to the top but it is a challenging study. Similarly, TA study offers some target level calculations based on certain price patterns.

Most importantly understand the time cycle you are bearish on...If you are bearish in intra day, don't carry the shorts home. Besides, if you expect the hourly sell to manifest in lower prices, don't wait longer than few hours. If it does not fall in fewer hours, the supposed bearishness would be weak and should be abandoned.

"Always want to short the market"...it is not peculiar to you. It is universal. Experts have been shorting the market and citing bad economy..We are traders and should always follow prices..More shorters in the market, the "shorts" alone will keep the market from falling and you don't need a booming economy..

Short:
1. when a channel is broken.
2. When macd turns down and nifty closes below short term avg
3. when a 5 wave move or an "abc"(1,2,3) wave is completed upwards in a falling market.
4. When OI)Open Interest) is rising and prices are falling or OI is falling and prices too.
5. Short..Short when after a negative divergence, prices are at a target or reversing..
6. Short in a "ORB"(Opening range break out(in the 1st 15-20 minutes), the prices break the lower range.

Shorters are the most successful traders but you need to fine tune that art. Your instinct to short seem to be natural gift. Develop it.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Today Nifty open at 6,356.00 with the gain of +96.10 (1.54%) point.Please provide some stop loss tips for this share price
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Capitalstars Research Updates said...

Share price of Hindustan Zinc declined 2 percent after company net profit fell 19.7% at Rs 2,012 crore, while revenue down 12.5% at Rs 5,491 crore.
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